According to a report by The New York Times, citing four informed sources, the Trump administration is trying to force the resignation of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel as U.S. and Cuban officials negotiate the future of the communist-ruled Caribbean island, which is in economic turmoil. This action would topple a key figure while still maintaining the authoritarian Communist government’s control, which has lasted for more than 65 years. These informed sources said that the U.S. has signaled to Cuban negotiators that Díaz-Canel must resign, but left the next steps to the Cuban side.
U.S. President Trump
Two informed sources mentioned that so far, the U.S. has not pushed for any actions against members of the Castro family, who remain the highest power brokers in Cuba. This aligns with the Trump administration’s overall preference in foreign policy to compel the Cuban regime to comply rather than disrupt its rule. One source indicated that some Trump officials believe that forcing the resignation of the Cuban head of state would facilitate structural economic changes in the country, as they view Díaz-Canel as a hardliner unlikely to support such changes.
If the Cuban side agrees, it would mark a significant political shift since negotiations began several months ago. One source stated that facilitating the resignation of Cuba’s top leader would bring Trump a symbolic victory, allowing him to assert to the American public that he has toppled a long-standing leftist government leader opposed to the U.S., just like in Venezuela.
Reports suggest that the move, while intended to signal to the Cuban exile community and the American public that the Trump administration seeks not only economic changes but political ones as well, may likely disappoint many conservative Cuban exiles in the U.S. who hope to see a complete political transformation in Cuba. Cuban-American legislators in Congress and political figures in Florida may also demand more action from Trump.
Informed sources revealed that U.S. negotiators also hope Cuba will agree to dismiss some remaining officials who cling to the ideology of the father of the Cuban communist revolution, Fidel Castro. Additionally, the U.S. is pushing authorities to release political prisoners, a long-standing policy goal in Washington.
From the perspective of U.S. officials, the focus of the talks is to gradually open up Cuba’s economy to American businessmen and companies—laying the groundwork for establishing a satellite state—while also securing some symbolic political victories for President Trump. The Cuban government has declined to comment.
At 65 years old, Díaz-Canel has served as Cuba’s president since 2018 and is also the first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party. He has two years left in his presidential term. Since the victory of the revolution in 1959, Díaz-Canel is the first, and so far only, Cuban leader not to bear the Castro surname.
A knowledgeable source indicated that the U.S. demand for Díaz-Canel’s resignation is not an ultimatum but is seen as a positive step aimed at paving the way for a fruitful agreement. The source also mentioned that participants in the negotiations agree that under Díaz-Canel’s presidency, there are numerous problems, but they still need to find a method to achieve change without appearing as if Washington is dictating terms to Havana.
According to sources, the U.S. has made clear that no agreement can be reached as long as Díaz-Canel remains in power. As part of a strategy to exert pressure on the Cuban government, the Trump administration has banned Cuban imports of foreign oil.
In informed sources, Raúl Castro’s grandson Rodríguez has been a primary representative in negotiations with the U.S. He has directly conversed with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, a son of Cuban immigrants, and is likely to continue to lead the Cuban government after Díaz-Canel’s resignation. The source indicated that Rodríguez, known as “Raulito,” would hold real power behind the scenes, with another non-Castro figure serving as the formal leader.
During a 90-minute press conference last Friday, Díaz-Canel acknowledged for the first time that talks with the U.S. government are ongoing and blamed Cuba’s economic issues and prolonged blackouts on Washington’s trade embargo, particularly Trump’s oil blockade. On Monday, the Cuban power grid collapsed, plunging the entire country into darkness.
The U.S. State Department declined to comment and instead referenced Trump’s recent remarks about Cuba. Trump intensified his rhetoric against Cuba on Monday, stating he looks forward to “honorably” taking over Cuba in some form and declared, “I can do with (Cuba) whatever I want.”
Trump told reporters during a signing ceremony in the Oval Office, “I mean, whether I liberate it or take it over, I think I can dispose of it however I like. If you want to know the truth.”
The Trump administration aims to reenact the Venezuelan scenario in Cuba—removing its leader from power—but this time without using military force. Two informed sources told The New York Times that the possibility of a military strike is unlikely.
On January 3, right as the U.S. was conducting airstrikes in Venezuela’s capital Caracas, U.S. forces entered the country to arrest President Maduro, who currently faces drug trafficking charges in New York. This allowed Washington to control Venezuela’s oil industry and cut off all oil supplies to Cuba.
Mexico had previously delivered oil to Cuba for humanitarian reasons but halted this aid under pressure from the Trump administration this winter.
According to an informed source, the Trump administration has also suggested that Cuba privatize its oil sector, although the authorities are reluctant to do so as it could grant Washington significant influence over Cuban affairs.
The report mentions that it is currently unclear who will succeed Díaz-Canel, but the Cuban government appears to be considering multiple candidates, bringing some usually behind-the-scenes officials more into the public eye.
Castro brothers’ nephew, Pérez-Oliva, was appointed as Cuba’s vice premier at the end of last year. On Monday, he made a rare appearance in an interview with a U.S. media outlet, discussing Cuba’s openness to overseas investment.