A nationwide blackout occurred in Cuba on the 16th. The picture shows a restaurant in Havana, the capital, maintaining lighting through its own power supply system. (AFP)
According to a report by the New York Times on the 16th, citing four informed negotiators, the Trump administration has issued a clear “ultimatum” to Cuba during critical negotiations, demanding the current Cuban President Diaz-Canel step down in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. This strategy aims to replace a symbolic head of state to open the Cuban market, rather than completely overthrowing the communist regime.
Sources indicate that the U.S. negotiators believe Diaz-Canel’s stance is too hardline and a stumbling block to economic reform. For the Trump administration, removing Diaz-Canel would not only show diplomatic victory to American voters but also pave the way for U.S. businesses to enter the Cuban market. Diaz-Canel has two years remaining in his term, and the Cuban government has yet to formally respond to the New York Times report.
Former White House official Suniga, who participated in the secret negotiations between the U.S. and Cuba during the Obama administration, bluntly stated: “This ship is sinking, and the captain must take responsibility.” He analyzed that Diaz-Canel was elected because of his maintaining the status quo, but has now become the perfect sacrifice in the U.S.-Cuba standoff.
It is noteworthy that this move by the U.S. is not directed at the powerful Castro family. It is reported that the late President Raul Castro’s grandson “Little Raul” (Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro) has been in contact with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio behind the scenes. Analysts believe that even if Diaz-Canel steps down, the Castro family will still manipulate behind the scenes to maintain regime stability.
Since U.S. military intervention in Venezuela at the beginning of the year to overthrow Maduro’s regime, Cuba has lost its most important oil supply source. Under U.S. pressure, Mexico has also stopped humanitarian oil aid to Cuba. Since January 9, Cuba has experienced a collapse of its power grid due to a lack of imported oil, resulting in a nationwide blackout on the 16th, leaving 11 million people without electricity.
On the 16th, Trump told reporters at the White House that Cuba is on the brink of collapse and is eager to reach an agreement with the U.S., stating it is now “very weak.” He anticipated being “honored” to take Cuba in some form, saying, “I want to do anything I want to this neighboring country.” This was his most explicit threat directed toward Cuba.
In response to the nationwide power paralysis and economic collapse caused by America’s “maximum pressure,” the Cuban government issued significant compromise signals on the 16th. Cuban Deputy Prime Minister Pérez-Oliva confirmed that they would break the political taboos that have lasted for over 60 years since the Castro revolution and officially open investments to overseas exiles, promising “no limits.” The exile community has been a major force pushing for U.S. economic sanctions against Cuba.
Pérez-Oliva pointed out that Cuba urgently needs to revive its economy, particularly in agriculture. He mentioned that Vietnamese companies are planting rice in Cuba, and Cuba will seek to emulate this model, maintaining state ownership of land while granting management and profit rights to investors to attract them to produce rice in Cuba.