Wu Fangming March 22, 2026
Rubio holds multiple key positions, becoming a focal point of power, showcasing the core capabilities required by the Trump system. (AP News)
The changes in power dynamics are often not about formal party conventions or public pronouncements from the White House, but about seemingly casual private dinners.
Seeing Rubio’s Rise from Mar-a-Lago Enthusiasm
According to The Wall Street Journal, President Donald Trump recently hosted major donors at Mar-a-Lago and asked how they view Vice President Vance (J.D. Vance) and Secretary of State Rubio (Marco Rubio); the applause for Rubio was noticeably louder. At the same time, ABC News reported that some Republican donors have started discussing a potential “Draft Rubio” initiative for the 2028 presidential election. This is not mere gossip, but a warning: the Republican party’s internal consideration of who will succeed in the post-Trump era has shifted from private contemplation to public probing.
Iran Conflict: A Catalyst for Power Restructuring
If this power redistribution has a catalyst, it would be the Iran conflict. The Trump administration has packaged military actions against Iran as a strong strike against the Iranian regime and military capabilities; both Rubio and Vance defended this stance, but their tones and roles are evidently different: Rubio’s hawkish role resembles that of an “external communicator,” while Vance shifted from an anti-war stance to support action against Iran, advocating for “quick and controllable attacks” without getting drawn into a prolonged war, appearing more as an “internal conciliator.” This difference is not about division of labor but reflects different ideologies and paths. Trump has openly pointed out that Vance philosophically differs from himself on Iran, highlighting this gap further.
The Dilemma of Vance: From Anti-War Asset to Political Liability
More notable is that Vance’s issues are not just about being overshadowed, but his former political advantages are becoming burdens. He successfully mobilized blue-collar and middle-class voters with anti-interventionism, anti-war, and economic priority rhetoric; however, as the White House enters a wartime state, what the decision-making structure needs are executors rather than questioners. Now he must justify a war he is not enthusiastic about, and the longer the war drags on, the more this contradiction may erode his political capital.
Rubio’s Rise: The Ideal Executor of Trump’s Power System
In contrast, Rubio’s rise seems to be an inevitable outcome of “system logic.” Holding multiple key roles makes him a concentrated power node, showcasing the core capabilities required by Trump’s regime: to execute the president’s will swiftly and without friction. In such a political structure, loyalty and execution often prove to be more valuable than the ideology itself.
The Competition of Two Routes: Retreating Populism vs Hawkish Interventionism
Thus, the current competition within the Republican party is essentially a clash of two paths: one represented by Vance as the “retreating populist path” or “new isolationism,” which refuses global intervention and emphasizes fiscal conservatism, domestic priority, economic revitalization, anti-war and local preference; the other represented by Rubio as the “hawkish execution path” or “new interventionism,” resurrecting strong diplomacy and military tools within the Trump framework, seeking to restore American hegemony in global order.
The choices of donors and voters are also diverging: grassroots voters lean towards Vance, yet capital favors the predictability and order of Rubio, who is gradually being viewed as the “controllable successor.”
The Succession Struggle Is Also the Future of the Republican Party
Therefore, the question has evolved beyond who the successor is to what kind of party the Republican Party will become: will it continue as a populist force that is anti-establishment and inward-looking, or will it shift towards a broad right-wing alliance that integrates national security hawks? Trump’s coexistence of both points is to maintain this strategic ambiguity. However, it is certain that the succession conflict has already commenced, and the future of the Republican Party is being redefined in this battle of paths.
※The author is a political economic observer