On March 26 local time, US President Donald Trump stated on his social media platform “Truth Social” that at the request of the Iranian government, he would postpone his plan to “destroy” Iranian energy facilities by 10 days, extending the deadline to 8 PM EST on April 6 (8 AM Beijing time on April 7).
On that day, Trump also mentioned that Iran had asked him to pause strikes on energy facilities for 7 days, but he granted them 10 days instead, and Iran was “very grateful”. Trump noted that the current negotiations are “progressing smoothly,” denying some media claims about stalled talks.
US President Donald Trump (file photo)
It is worth noting that Trump posted this information just 11 minutes after the US stock market closed on the 26th.
On that day, the US stock market could be described as being in a state of panic. Amidst spreading fears, a fierce sell-off occurred, with all three major indices plummeting sharply; the NASDAQ even fell 2.38%, the largest one-day drop since the outbreak of conflict on February 28. Large tech stocks plummeted, and chip stocks were particularly hard hit, while the VIX (Volatility Index) rose to 27 points. The bond market also suffered heavy losses, as the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond climbed by 7.95 basis points. Meanwhile, European major indices fell across the board, with the STOXX 50 and Germany’s DAX30 indices down over 1.5%. International oil prices surged, with WTI crude futures rising over 4% and Brent crude oil rising over 5%.
Against this backdrop, Trump’s statement about delaying strikes on Iranian energy facilities by “10 days” may be more an attempt to alleviate strong panic in Wall Street amidst the soaring international oil prices and other pressures, marking yet another “TACO” (Trump Always Calls Off) maneuver.
Financial markets reacted swiftly to Trump’s latest remarks. On March 27, during the early trading session in Asia-Pacific, US stock index futures rose, with all three major futures rebounding over 0.3%. International precious metals also rose, with spot gold gaining 0.51% to $4400.09 per ounce; spot silver climbed to $69 per ounce, up 1.56% intraday. Additionally, international oil prices slipped in early trading, with WTI crude falling 1.00% to $93.531 per barrel.
In fact, this is not the first time Trump has “postponed strikes”. Previously, Trump had threatened Iran on the 21st to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or else he would destroy its power plants; on the 23rd, he “postponed” the deadline by 5 days, which also resulted in a situation of “US stock rebounds and oil prices plummeting” in the financial markets.
Many observers have noted that whenever energy prices or borrowing costs reach specific thresholds, the rhetoric from the White House softens. A consensus has formed in the US stock market—that international oil prices (or inflation rates) and US Treasury yields are Trump’s two red lines: whenever US crude oil prices approach $95 to $100 per barrel, the White House’s rhetoric to cool tensions significantly increases, and expectations for government intervention also rise, as the rise in international oil prices will drive up gasoline prices, leading to inflation, which Trump evidently remains cautious about; the yield on US Treasuries is another warning line that triggers cooling; when the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 4.5%, it implies that the US government’s credit begins to waver, prompting the White House to often make strategic adjustments to cool the market.
Iran has recently proposed five conditions
Taking a tough stance with distrust towards the US
Despite Trump’s self-satisfied claims that it was “at the request of the Iranian government”, he even stated he graciously extended the time from 7 days to 10 days, Iran’s perspective presents a different narrative.
According to news reports from Xinhua citing sources from the Wall Street Journal, Iran did not request the US to postpone airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days as Trump asserted.
Recent news indicates that Iran formally responded on the evening of the 25th local time to the 15-point ceasefire proposal put forward by the US, showcasing a very tough stance and wording.
Specifically, Iran has proposed five conditions: an immediate termination of all aggressive assassination operations by opposing parties; creating objective conditions to ensure that war does not recur; making clear commitments to compensate for war losses and implementing them; the war must end synchronously on all fronts, covering all “resistance organizations” participating in this conflict in the region; and acknowledging Iran’s natural and legitimate rights to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Informed sources revealed that these conditions put forward by Iran are distinctly different from the demands made during the second round of negotiations in Geneva.
If one carefully analyzes the five conditions proposed by Iran, it is evident that the first four are targeted responses to the specific aggressive actions taken by the US and Israel against Iran since February 28, mainly requiring the US (and Israel) to provide sufficient safety assurances to Iran, such as not engaging in “aggressive assassination operations” in advance of ensuring security commitments for Iran’s Supreme Leader and a number of military leaders; and the demand for full cessation of war, including all “resistance organizations” in the region, is primarily a request for the US to ensure the security of Iran’s allies in the region, including Hezbollah and the Houthi movement from Yemen, as these allies have actively countered US and Israeli military forces on various fronts since the outbreak of war, providing significant defensive and counterattack time for Iran.
However, the most important condition remains the last one, which is to acknowledge Iran’s natural and legitimate rights to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. As a critical corridor for global energy transportation, the Strait of Hormuz is already virtually under Iranian control and nearing a state of functional paralysis, with a drastic drop in the number of vessels passing through. Market service agencies indicate that since March this year, the number of merchant vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by 95% compared to before the conflict.
Will the US and Iran accept each other’s ceasefire conditions?
Recently, Israeli media revealed key points of the 15-point ceasefire proposal put forth by the US to Iran, including demands that Iran commit never to develop nuclear weapons, not perform uranium enrichment activities within Iran, abandon support for “proxy forces”, open the Strait of Hormuz and ensure it as a “free sea zone”, limit the quantity and range of ballistic missiles, etc.
It can be seen that the five conditions proposed by Iran are targeted to the US’s 15-point ceasefire proposal. Will the US and Iran be able to accept each other’s proposed conditions? The answer is evident: it is nearly impossible.
Let’s discuss the condition regarding the promise not to develop nuclear weapons, which can be considered a cliché. Although the nuclear agreement was previously torn up unilaterally by the US, Iran’s overall attitude towards this condition over several rounds of negotiations has been relatively positive, but on the premise that the US can cease military actions and compensate for damages, and must fulfill its promises. Iran has previously been able to control its development of nuclear weapons capabilities within the framework of the nuclear agreement and can still do so, thus the key issue lies not in whether Iran can do this, but rather in whether Iran wishes to, which depends on the US’s attitude.
Most importantly, the conditions proposed by the US regarding regional “proxy forces” and opening the Strait of Hormuz are among Iran’s core interests. The so-called regional “proxy forces” include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and other armed forces funded by Iran, which together constitute the “resistance arc” led by Iran in the Middle East, which is crucial for maintaining the geopolitical balance in the Middle East and continuously restraining the US and Israel while ensuring the national security of Iran.
On March 26 local time, officials from the Houthi movement announced to the media that the Houthis were prepared to take military action.